An update note by Confindustria on the possible macroeconomic effects and on the implications for world trade of merchandise underway between the United States and China. The document aims to systematize the most up-to-date and authoritative analyzes on what will be the effects for two contenders, for partners and for the global economic and commercial system as a whole.
All of them foresee significant losses in terms of GDP for both the United States and China and an even more important impact on bilateral trade flows and world trade. However, there is also the possibility that the "replacement" effect due to duties can offer global partners the possibility of increasing their exports both in the USA and, to a lesser extent, in China.
Another aspect on which analysts agree is that the friction between Washington and Beijing will not end in the short term, even in the event that Trump and Xi Jinping find an agreement at the end of June at Osaka's G20.